Normalcy Bias

Normalcy bias is the assumption that just as things have been in the past, so they will continue to be in the future. Normalcy bias causes people to underestimate, minimize, or completely disregard an impending crisis. We are all vulnerable to it.

Normalcy bias is responsible for car accidents close to home. You become so familiar with going through an intersection without a pedestrian or a cyclist in the crosswalk that you blow through it without a second thought. That works … until it doesn’t.

In the face of a rapidly spreading wildfire or severe hurricane, people will delay evacuation, convincing themselves a storm will shift, or the fire will be contained, or their house will survive as it did during previous fires or storms.

Normalcy bias was a factor in causing the builders of the Titanic to not include enough lifeboats. When the Titanic struck the iceberg, normalcy bias kept people dancing and eating because their assumption was so powerful that the ocean liner couldn’t sink. Normalcy bias convinced people not to flee Nazi Germany because they believed that their government could never turn against them.

Normalcy bias appears in our lives when it comes to Jesus’ return on Judgment Day. We get so used to the routine and rhythm of our lives of work, school, extracurriculars, and other busyness that we forget to consider that all this could end in a moment, in a flash, in the twinkling of an eye (1 Corinthians 15:52). Such assumptions will work … until the Day they don’t.

The first way St. Paul breaks us out of our normalcy bias toward Judgment Day is to describe that Day like a thief coming in the night. “Concerning the times and dates, brothers, there is no need to write to you, for you yourselves know very well that the day of the Lord will come like a thief in the night” (1 Thessalonians 5:1-2).

Thieves don’t send you a “save the date” card in the mail when they’re planning to break into your place and steal your things. They’re going to come when they’re least expected.

It seems a little strange that God would compare himself to a thief. He says, “I’m not going to send you a ‘save the date’ card for the Day my Son returns to judge this world. You’re just going to have to be ready for it to come at any time.”

Your normalcy bias is to believe that you’re safe since a thief has never broken into your house. So, you get complacent and don’t check if the doors are locked. You leave the outdoor lights off to save on the electric bill. You don’t renew your alarm system subscription. You let your old, deaf dog keep sleeping. Your normalcy bias is to become complacent. Since Jesus hasn’t come yet, you don’t prepare spiritually because he likely won’t be coming anytime soon.

But proper vigilance means you prepare for a thief coming any night by locking your doors, turning on outdoor lights, and having a security alarm or a barking dog. In the same way, you prepare for Jesus coming like a thief in the night by locking out sin with daily repentance and turning on your Christian light for all to see. You have an inner alarm system that warns you to flee sin and run toward your Savior any time Satan teams with your sinful nature to tempt you.

Even though the Last Day will come like a thief in the night, the surprise will not upset you because you are children of the light. God has opened your eyes to see the truth that Jesus is your Savior, you’re safe, and you will be secure with him in your salvation.

The second way St. Paul breaks us out of our normalcy bias is to compare Judgment Day to the labor pains of a pregnant woman. “When people are saying, ‘Peace and security,’ destruction will suddenly come on them, like labor pains on a pregnant woman, and they will certainly not escape” (1 Thessalonians 5:3).

I’ve been blessed to be in the hospital room four times for the birth of my daughters. I don’t know if Shelley would use the term “blessed” as she was going through the pain of childbirth four times. Moms, you know that once you’re in that bed and the baby is coming, you can’t say to the doctor, “Hey, Doc, I’m not so sure about this. Can we reschedule or next week?” The doctor will reply, “Nope! Push! Here he comes!”

The same is true for Jesus’ return. When we hear the angel’s trumpet and see the glory of God spread across the sky, Jesus is coming. What comes next will be either immediate joy or everlasting shame.

Paul describes that Judgment Day will come “suddenly.” Unbelievers will be distracted by the pleasures of the world and discounting any warnings from God’s people. We’ll be telling them, “Repent! The kingdom of heaven is near!” They’ll reply, “Peace and security.” They’re trapped in their normalcy bias. But God’s inescapable wrath will come upon the unprepared and the unbelieving with surprising suddenness. They did not want to believe in Jesus as their Savior. They refused to receive the offer of free forgiveness in Christ’s blood. They rejected the blessings of being part of God’s holy family through Holy Baptism. They purposely closed their ears to the preaching of the gospel. They lived as if Good Friday and Easter Sunday were just normal days of the week. They will not escape.

The third way St. Paul breaks us out of our normalcy bias is to tell us to remain alert and sober in a culture of darkness and drunkenness. “But you, brothers, are not in the dark so that this day could take you by surprise like a thief, for you are all sons of the light and sons of the day. We do not belong to the night or the darkness. So then let us not sleep like everyone else, but rather let us remain alert and sober. To be sure, those who sleep, sleep at night, and those who get drunk, get drunk at night. But since we belong to the day, let us be sober, putting on faith and love as a breastplate, and the hope of salvation as a helmet. You see, God did not appoint us for wrath, but for obtaining salvation through our Lord Jesus Christ. He died for us, so that whether we are awake or asleep, we may live together with him” (1 Thessalonians 5:4-10).

St. Paul reminds us we are different than the unbelievers who surround us. He calls us brothers and sisters, sons and daughters of the light, and sons and daughters of the day. Because we are made different through Christ, we will behave differently as Christ’s followers. While the rest of the world is sleeping in the darkness of sin and unbelief, we will remain alert and sober, putting on the armor of Christ – the breastplate of faith and love, and the helmet of the hope of salvation.

Throughout Scripture, the Lord’s call to us is urgent. “Listen, listen to me,” he says (Isaiah 55:2). “Seek the LORD while he may be found,” he says (Isaiah 55:6). “Now is the day of salvation,” he says (2 Corinthians 6:2).

The heart of love that puts out such an urgent call to us is the same heart that drove God to become one of us in the person of Jesus Christ. It’s the same love that drove him to carry our every sin to the cross and make full payment for all of them. This is how passionate our Savior’s love is. He wants to shatter the deception of our normalcy bias. And he wants to replace it with the reality of sins forgiven through faith in him.

We live in certain uncertainty. We are certain Jesus will return, but the uncertainty is the date of his arrival. So, we wait, not passively twiddling our thumbs and looking skyward. No, Paul is calling us to action – to live out our faith in a manner worthy of God’s calling. To be awake, sober, and shielded with the armor of God.

Being prepared isn’t about looking for signs or decoding mysterious prophecies. It’s about living our lives today expecting Jesus could return tomorrow. That’s the heartbeat of the Christian life. It’s about embodying the values of the Kingdom here and now – values like faith, hope, and love – so that we are ready whenever the Day comes, be it tomorrow or decades from now or even several millennia. What does vigilance look like in our day-to-day lives? It looks like extending grace to those who least deserve it – as Jesus did for us. It looks like keeping our integrity intact even when no one’s watching. It looks like standing firm in our faith, especially when the trials of life hit us like sustained 70-mile an hour Casper winds.

For we are Jesus’ followers who have been washed and forgiven and brought into God’s Kingdom, all through his gracious and loving choice. That means for us Judgment Day will be a wonderful day! It will be a day of partying! The waiting will be over. By God’s grace, we’ve kept our lamps burning. We’ll finally be entering the Wedding Feast!

God’s people may be embarrassed if that Day catches us behaving like people of darkness rather than people of light. We really don’t want to face Jesus with our mouth full of nasty gossip, with our mind clouded with pride, or with our hands stretched out to grab rather than give. It’s true, we are sinners, but at the same time we are declared forgiven saints. Come, Lord Jesus! And when you come, please catch us behaving like a saint. But even if he doesn’t, we are still forgiven sons and daughters of the light. Which is Paul’s whole point.

The final way St. Paul breaks us out of our normalcy bias is by encouraging others. “Therefore, encourage one another and build each other up, just as you are also doing” (1 Thessalonians 5:11). This is the encouragement I texted this week to the guys I mountain bike with. The meme has an idyllic mountain scene. The text reads, “It’s in peaceful moments like this that I can’t help but think about all the ones I’ve lost along the way. … They’re a mile behind and better pick up the pace!” That’s my kind of encouragement!

Real encouragement was Wednesday night when we had about 20 people in the sanctuary to hear Pastor Russow talk about ministry recruitment. Then to have him speak personally to one of our teens and one of our young men about pursuing the public ministry as pastors. Then to have members speak to me, figuring out how to financially support these young men if they leave our church to fulfill their vocations for God’s kingdom work in his Holy Christian Church. Keep encouraging these young men with your prayers, words, and offerings.

It’s encouraging to have our third Trick or Treat event at church, where we had four people help canvas 600 homes with invitations, 21 volunteers to hand out candy and food, and 425 parents, grandparents, and children learn more about us through the event.

It’s encouraging to see God visibly growing his Christian Church through our little church with baptisms, adult confirmations, and more visitors in worship. Keep on encouraging one another as you see Judgment Day approaching.

Be awake. Be alert. Be sober. And if you’re on the verge of giving birth, have your go-bag by the door. And if you’re on the verge of Jesus returning at any moment, put on the gospel armor as you go tell others about Jesus, pray for them, and show the love of Jesus in what you do and say. So, you can help break them out of their normalcy bias. Because their normalcy bias works … until the Day it doesn’t. Amen.